Back testing hypothetical portfolios is a clever marketing tool that mutual funds and money managers often employ to show what would have been, in order to attract assets under management (AUM). Of course the greater the AUM, the greater the fees and profits for the manager.
Offering back tested performance is a tricky pursuit for a variety of reasons. Mutual funds and money managers have all kinds of ways to legally misrepresent actual performance (read about survivorship bias).
At MarketRiders we seek to be honest and unbiased and don't want to "play the game." Nevertheless, we felt compelled to respond to numerous client requests.
So understand, these are hypothetical results. ETFs are a newer type of index fund, and many that we recommend in MarketRiders portfolios were not around 5 years ago. Therefore, for the purpose of this exercise, we have built and back tested 4 MarketRiders' style portfolios using all iShare ETFs. These ETFs have been around long enough to go back 5 years and provide useful information to an investor who wants to see the power of the MarketRiders System. In actual MarketRiders portfolios, we recommend only 1 or 2 of the ETFs below, substituting the remaining iShares products with what we believe to be superior ETFs offered primarily by State Street Bank and Vanguard.
These portfolios were all rebalanced when an asset class deviated greater than 20% from its target. Trading fees for each rebalancing were deducted from returns. With these caveats, you can see the power of an all ETF portfolio, with low fees, periodically rebalanced, and built according to 4 different asset allocations ranging from a 20% to an 80% bond allocation. All of these portfolios include 6 asset classes: US Stocks, Foreign Developed Stocks, Emerging Market Stocks, Bonds, Treasury Protected Bonds (TIPs), and Real Estate (REITs).
| iShares ETFs | Symbol | Income 80% Bond | Balanced 60% Bond | Balanced 40% Bond | Growth 20% Bond | S&P 500 |
| US Inflation Protected Bonds | TIP | 13.0% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 5.0% | |
| Government & Corporate Bonds | AGG | 67.0% | 50.0% | 33.0% | 15.0% | |
| Emerging Market Stocks | EEM | 2.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 8.5% | |
| Foreign Developed Stocks | EFA | 5.0% | 9.0% | 13.5% | 17.0% | |
| Real Estate | IYR | 4.0% | 6.0% | 10.0% | 13.0% | |
| US Large Cap Stocks (S&P 500) | IVV | 6.0% | 15.0% | 20.0% | 27.0% | |
| US Small Cap Stocks (S&P 600) | IJR | 3.0% | 5.5% | 10.0% | 14.5% | |
| TOTAL | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | |
| Annualized Portfolio Returns* | ||||||
| 5 Year Return (1/1/06 - 12/31/10) | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 1.2% | |
| 3 Year Return (1/1/08 - 12/31/10) | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | -0.9% | -3.6% | |
| 1 Year Return (1/1/10 - 12/31/10) | 5.2% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 12.9% | |
* Calculated with dividends reinvested |
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Index Investing: ETF and Index Fund Portfolios from MarketRiders
MarketRiders offers do-it-yourself index investing with ETF and index fund portfolios that are low-cost, diversified and available at all major online brokers including Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Vanguard, e-Trade, TD Ameritrade and Vanguard. A MarketRiders portfolio is constructed using the lowest-cost, most tax efficient exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and index funds that have average annual fees of 0.2%, saving you thousands of dollars over mutual fund fees.
MarketRiders provides automated rebalancing alerts, showing you exactly what to buy and sell to realign with your target asset allocation percentages. You can also add or subtract money from your portfolio at any time and we'll show you the specific trades to make.
MarketRiders in the news:
Reuters: The value of MarketRiders
New York Times: MarketRiders Offering Commission-Free E.T.F. Portfolios
CNN Money: The Future of Investing Advice
The Wall Street Journal: Tools to Help Pick ETFs
Barrons: Do-It-Yourself Portfolio Management
USA Today: Exchange traded funds are a low-cost way to build portfolio
CNN: "Building ETF Portfolios" Mitch Tuchman of MarketRiders.com, discusses with Christine Romans how to build ETF portfolios to get diversification in an IRA and replace mutual funds and their high fees.
Fox Business: Mitch Tuchman discusses commodities ETFs with Jenna Lee of Fox Business News
MarketWatch: Web site's mission: Cut investment fees

