{"id":948,"date":"2011-05-26T23:28:40","date_gmt":"2011-05-27T03:28:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/blog\/?p=948"},"modified":"2016-12-21T07:34:36","modified_gmt":"2016-12-21T15:34:36","slug":"how-to-play-the-coming-tech-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/how-to-play-the-coming-tech-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Play the Coming Tech Bubble"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s a gland that must be in the body that doctors have never found. But we know<br \/>\nit is there. We call it the \u201cgreed gland.\u201d Wikipedia says a gland is an \u201corgan in an<br \/>\nanimal&#8217;s body that synthesizes a substance for release such as hormones\u2026 often into<br \/>\nthe bloodstream or into cavities inside the body or its outer surface.\u201d When we hear that<br \/>\nothers are profiting from an investment and getting wealthier and we\u2019 re not, this gland<br \/>\nstarts excreting the envy chemical. Envy is an emotion that \u201c occurs when a person lacks<br \/>\nanother\u2019s (perceived) superior quality, achievement or possession and either desires it or<br \/>\nwishes that the other lacked it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Greed glands were on fire last week when LinkedIn went public. Maybe this was your<br \/>\nmental ticker tape: \u201c How could I have gotten in on that action? Why did I miss Linkedin<br \/>\nand now Yandex? When Zynga, Facebook and Foursquare IPO how can I get shares?<br \/>\nHow about all those Silicon Valley geeks getting rich again and I\u2019m not! Are new social<br \/>\nnetworking companies going to become another tech bubble and will I profit from it?<br \/>\nAm I going to just sit on my hands? Maybe I\u2019 ll just buy LinkedIn now at $90. It is a<br \/>\ngood company. I use it. It will eventually go higher.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019 s the greed gland talking. There\u2019s no doubt that LinkedIn is a fantastic business!<br \/>\nThis professional network has over 90 million members will soon have revenues of $400<br \/>\nmillion and has a model with all of the wonderful characteristics of a web-based business.<br \/>\nBut it is likely not worth anywhere near $9 billion today. Fortunes have been lost buying<br \/>\ngreat businesses at the wrong price. Fortunes have been made buying bad businesses at<br \/>\ngreat discounts (Warren Buffett called it \u201ccigar-butt\u201d investing).<\/p>\n<p>The greed grand and its secretion of envy will drive you to buy when you feel you are<br \/>\nbeing left behind. Those who fall prey to it become speculators. It might be wise to clip<br \/>\nthe following words and read them when your greed gland starts convulsing:<\/p>\n<p>When you invest or loan your money to companies that operate in our capitalistic system,<br \/>\nyou as an owner will be paid. Over the time period that retirement investors care about,<br \/>\nsay 20 or so years, that return has been in the 8% &#8211; 10% range. Think of capitalism as a<br \/>\ntrain. If you get on it, your money will grow just because the system demands a return<br \/>\non invested capital. Over the journey, the train will slow down, backtrack, or speed<br \/>\nup, but it will keep chugging along. Eighteen years ago in 1993 you could have bought<br \/>\nthe S&amp; P 500 in a newly minted product called SPY (the first Exchange Traded Fund)<br \/>\nfor $33. Today SPY is worth four times that \u2013 $132. You\u2019 d have made no decisions,<br \/>\nclipped some dividends and paid minimal taxes without breaking a sweat. No CNBC, no<br \/>\ncommentary, little anxiety. Just by owning your small piece of American capitalism.<\/p>\n<p>If you get off the train, you become a speculator, thinking you can get farther than the<br \/>\nrest of us who are on the train. Speculating is thrilling and it cures the temporary itch of<br \/>\nthe greed gland. But there are two problems that few overcome. First, you pay taxes on<br \/>\nthe gains so your winnings are automatically cut by one third to one half. You have to<br \/>\nrun even harder and faster. And second, all speculators make mistakes. Few investors<br \/>\nlike to talk about investment mistakes, but everyone makes them. Every seasoned<br \/>\nprofessional investor knows that avoiding and limiting the inevitable mistake is the single<br \/>\nmost important characteristic of investment success.<\/p>\n<p>If you think you have a talent for buying LinkedIn and other IPO shares and sprint ahead<br \/>\nof the train, you may get a town or two ahead this year. But sooner or later, you will<br \/>\nmake a mistake. You\u2019 ll buy too high on an oversized bet and feel pain as your losses pile<br \/>\nup. Like all speculators, the train will pass you or run over you at some point in the next<br \/>\n10 or 20 years. Your friends will be having fun on the train and you\u2019 ll be roadkill. So<br \/>\nplease, just stay on the train, buy yourself a drink and enjoy the ride.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s a gland that must be in the body that doctors have never found. But we know it is there. We call it the \u201cgreed gland.\u201d Wikipedia says a gland &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/how-to-play-the-coming-tech-bubble\/\">Read more <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.6.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>How to Play the Coming Tech Bubble | MarketRiders<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/how-to-play-the-coming-tech-bubble\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"How to Play the Coming Tech Bubble | MarketRiders\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"There\u2019s a gland that must be in the body that doctors have never found. 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We call it the \u201cgreed gland.\u201d Wikipedia says a gland &hellip; Read more &rarr;","twitter_creator":"@marketriders","twitter_site":"@marketriders","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"MarketRiders","Est. reading time":"4 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/how-to-play-the-coming-tech-bubble\/","url":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/how-to-play-the-coming-tech-bubble\/","name":"How to Play the Coming Tech Bubble | MarketRiders","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/#website"},"datePublished":"2011-05-27T03:28:40+00:00","dateModified":"2016-12-21T15:34:36+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/#\/schema\/person\/f2be262f5c0f3ed5ad50d6c40640ba8c"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/how-to-play-the-coming-tech-bubble\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/how-to-play-the-coming-tech-bubble\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/how-to-play-the-coming-tech-bubble\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"How to Play the Coming Tech Bubble"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/","name":"MarketRiders.com","description":"How To Become A Better Investor","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/#\/schema\/person\/f2be262f5c0f3ed5ad50d6c40640ba8c","name":"MarketRiders","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8e06113f594828daaf313d283544d566?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/8e06113f594828daaf313d283544d566?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"MarketRiders"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.marketriders.com"],"url":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/author\/support\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/948"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=948"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/948\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11243,"href":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/948\/revisions\/11243"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=948"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=948"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=948"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}