{"id":13863,"date":"2021-11-15T09:48:31","date_gmt":"2021-11-15T17:48:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/?p=13863"},"modified":"2021-11-15T10:09:08","modified_gmt":"2021-11-15T18:09:08","slug":"anything-stock-market-seasonality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/anything-stock-market-seasonality\/","title":{"rendered":"Is There Anything To Stock Market ‘Seasonality’?"},"content":{"rendered":"

You\u2019ve probably heard the stock market adage \u201cSell in May and go away.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The idea, broadly, is that stocks tend to under-perform over the summer months, from the end of April through September.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another way to look at the trend, of course, is to consider that the opposite six months, from November through April, are typically a good period for stock investors.<\/span><\/p>\n

Popular among traders, the pattern holds true over the decades. CFRA Research found that the S&P 500 increased on average by 6.8% from November to April and by 1.7% from May to October.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

That pattern seems to be holding up this year following a tough September. But it may not be as simple as sitting out the market six months of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n

The problem with seasonal investment strategies is that nobody knows what actually will happen in any given year. Moreover, while you might feel safer out of the market when valuations are volatile, that assumes your money is doing something better over that time.<\/span><\/p>\n

Very low fixed-income returns have made it nearly impossible to find a way to \u201cdo something better\u201d when stocks are lackluster. Even if you knew that stocks would return less than 2%, money in the bank or in the bond market wouldn\u2019t necessarily perform better.<\/span><\/p>\n

Taking into account just the dividend return of the broad stock market, you might be in the same place or better by staying investing over those slower months. Absent a market crash or an extended bear market, it\u2019s hard to say stocks are a \u201cbad\u201d investment even if returns are relatively weaker.<\/span><\/p>\n

The trouble, too, with this kind of market analysis is that gains you miss by being in cash \u2014 those out-of-character times when stocks roar higher even if they \u201cshouldn\u2019t\u201d for some reason \u2014 are gains you can never get back.<\/span><\/p>\n

Time in the market<\/span><\/h2>\n

JPMorgan, for instance, calculates that over the 20 years ending in December 2020, an investment in the S&P 500 returned 6.06% per year. Missing the 10 \u201cbest days\u201d over roughly 5,000 trading days and that return falls to 2.44%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Missing the 20 best days causes the return to fall to 0.08%. From there returns go negative.<\/span><\/p>\n

What this should tell you is that stock investment returns are incredibly spiky. Guessing right which days to own stocks is virtually impossible, and sitting out for months at a time dramatically increases the risk of missing those \u201cbest day\u201d returns.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is why prudent, long-term investors say \u201ctime in the market\u201d is a better strategy than \u201ctiming the market.\u201d\u00a0 Even professionals with years of experience can get timing strategies wrong, and when they do those losses are permanent.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another trader saying is that \u201cnobody rings a bell at a market top\u2026or bottom.\u201d Investors can pore over thousands of data points and spend countless hours absorbing the opinions of star money managers.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nevertheless, data is not wisdom and opinions, however educated, remain opinions. Better to invest steadily with a plan than try to catch a trading wave. You could end up on the rocks.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/h5>\n
Information presented is for educational purposes only for a broad audience.\u00a0 The information does not intend to make an offer or solicitation of\u200bor the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and are not guaranteed.\u00a0MarketRiders (dba Sogotrade Asset Management) has reasonable belief that this marketing does not include any false or material misleading statements or omissions of facts regarding services, investment or client experience.\u00a0MarketRiders (dba Sogotrade Asset Management) has reasonable belief that the content as a whole will not cause an untrue or misleading implication regarding the adviser\u2019s services, investments or client experiences. Please refer to our\u00a0Firm Brochure (ADV2)<\/h5>\n
https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/form-adv-2a.pdf<\/a>\u00a0 for material risks disclosures.<\/h5>\n
Past performance<\/strong> of specific investment advice should not be relied upon without knowledge of certain circumstances of market events, nature and timing of the investments and relevant constraints of the investment.\u00a0MarketRiders (dba Sogotrade Asset Management)\u00a0has presented information in a\u00a0fair and balanced manner.<\/h5>\n
The opinions<\/strong> expressed herein are those of the firm and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication and are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions and may not necessarily come to pass.\u00a0 Any opinions, projections, or forward-looking statements expressed herein are solely those of MarketRiders, may differ from the views or opinions expressed by other areas of the firm, and are only for general informational purposes as of the date indicated.<\/h5>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

You\u2019ve probably heard the stock market adage \u201cSell in May and go away.\u201d The idea, broadly, is that stocks tend to under-perform over the summer months, from the end of … Read more →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":13864,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_wp_rev_ctl_limit":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"\nIs There Anything To Stock Market 'Seasonality'? | MarketRiders<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The trouble, too, with this kind of stock market seasonality is that gains you miss by being in cash \u2014 those out-of-character times when stocks roar higher even if they "shouldn't" for some reason \u2014 are gains you can never get back.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.marketriders.com\/investing\/anything-stock-market-seasonality\/\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Is There Anything To Stock Market 'Seasonality'? 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