Similarly with such market volatility in recent weeks, a few MarketRiders members have been asked to make some tough calls when, depending upon the portfolio, our rebalancing algorithms have alerted them to add to positions like, of all things, Europe. “Are you serious?” one member moaned. “Everyone knows Europe is blowing up. Why buy more now?”

Just like the man from the quote above, this member was having a tough time sticking with the plan. Sorry, but “buy low sell high” is tough to do. Successful investors must continually bet against the crowd, always with deep conviction, coupled with a tug of “unbelief.”

The MarketRiders system of buy, hold, rebalance is an investment approach, based upon solid research and unshakable facts. We can never remove all doubt, but we’ve harnessed the most scientifically verifiable investment approach known today. Rebalancing adds to returns and helps manage risk. You maintain your target allocations, and the risk level you set for yourself when you built your portfolio. Riding winners if fun, but what goes up, certainly comes down. Moving from religion to the casino: rebalancing forces you to “take money off the table” and add to losing bets that will be tomorrow’s winning ones.

It’s tough to maintain your allocations, and trimming a gold position or buying Europe while it is apparently swirling down the toilet is not easy. At moments like these, lean into the facts of the scientific research, push back your emotions and then rebalance your portfolio. You will be glad you did.

Investors who have decided to enter this tournament via day trading, market timing, technical analysis or even tactical asset allocation, need to pay close attention. You are playing a game that is very difficult to win, especially if you have fewer resources, knowledge and technology than your competition. Oh, sure, you might be lucky enough to win a few early hands but the long-term outcome is fairly predictable. Such investors live with a prevailing sense of unrest knowing that they have shown up to a shotgun duel carrying a pocketknife.

Wealthy families, endowments and elite institutions practice a different investment approach. These investors are wise enough to avoid, paying fees to managers trying to “beat” the averages in public stock markets. Sure, they may invest in private equity and venture capital where they enjoy an advantage via access to the best deals and terms. But when it comes to public markets, these investors commit a large portion of their portfolio to passive indexed strategies – the MarketRiders approach. The only bet such investors are making is that the world is in fact not coming to an end any time soon and that its markets, companies and their portfolio will continue to grow over long periods of time.

This approach provides amazing freedom from having to stare at your portfolio several times a day. Unconcerned about the daily gyrations of Jim Cramer and the rest of the bobble-headed finance media, long-term and disciplined MarketRiders can go about their daily lives with peace of mind. Sure, the market is down May and your portfolio probably dropped with it, but with a retirement time-horizon that is years away, your portfolio will not only recover, but grow quite nicely.  And by rebalancing you are taking advantage of these swings.  This knowledge frees you from staring at a computer monitor and gives you time to go about the real business of living your life.  In the end, isn’t that what the money is actually for?

Sadly, it was no surprise to learn the Goldman Sachs threw their clients “under the bus” by deceitfully selling them mortgage securities while at the same time making a killing on shorting the housing market.  Their slogan, “Helping clients build and preserve their financial wealth” needs a minor adjustment. “Helping clients build and preserve OUR financial wealth.” This is a paragon of the Wall Street ethic – make money (hmmm – a lot of money) even if you must trample your client under foot. When you manage your own diversified portfolio of ETFs through a MarketRiders account, you truly get Wall Street out of your pocketbook by removing the intermediaries.

The Wall Street gurus seem to have a closet full of tricks to help investors outperform the market. Unfortunately, most of this advice is unproven and ineffective. In this MoneyWatch article, James Picerno points out one of the ONLY scientifically proven secrets to boost portfolio returns year-upon-year – disciplined rebalancing. Mr. Picerno underscores that rebalancing can deliver a 0.5 to 1.0 percentage point annual bonus compared to what you’d earn on the same portfolio that’s left alone. Our research shows that by using MarketRiders’ advanced rebalancing algorithms rather than a simple calendar based approach, investors add up to 2% additional growth in some portfolios and market conditions. We have more on this topic here: “How Often Do I Need to Rebalance?”.

When it comes to retirement investing, remember that you don’t have as many friends in the financial services industry as you think. By taking the time to learn the virtues of low cost indexing, global diversification and disciplined rebalancing, you will truly build and preserve YOUR wealth.

Most retirement investors rebalance via calender alerts on a quarterly basis. This method, however, is trumped by the deeply researched practices of large endowments that rigorously perform event based rebalancing. These large institutions have hundreds of millions if not billions at work in and understand that by setting pre-defined bans by asset class or index, they are able to have thier technology keep a watchful eye on market dynamics and harvest gains at the exact moment the portfolio moves outside of rules for the portfolio. This contrarian discipline allows these endowments and large institutions to add as much as 2% a year to their returns, not including taxes and trading fees.

At MarketRiders, we have created an retirement platform that empowers everyday retirement investor with rebalancing technology enjoyed by wealthy endowments. In our MarketRiders engine, you too  can set the rebalancing bands for your retirement portfolio. If it is in a tax free account and you have low brokerage fees, you may go under your dashboard and choose Set Alert Levels to increase your rebalancing sensitivity to a setting of 4 or 5. If you are in a taxable account, we recommend a setting of 3. Whether you are a MarketRiders member or not, what matter most is that you follow the examples of the pros through disciplined event based rebalancing.  For more information about this strategy, download our free report by clicking here.

He first suggests ”setting an asset allocation for your portfolio and dollar-cost-average your investment dollars into low-cost, broad index funds.”  One can do this by either deciding to use the service of an investment adviser to create a customized asset allocation, our by using a ‘do-it-yourself’ tool offered by companies like MarketRiders, AmeriTrade or Fidelity to manage your own portfolio. 

He then goes on to state the importance of ‘rebalancing your portfolio when your asset tilt gets out of whack because the markets surprise you, as they surely will. This means forcing yourself to buy stocks when they’re down and selling when they’re up. Doing so allows you to take advantage of irrational investor behavior rather than being a victim of it.”  Investment rebalancing can be quick and easy with the ‘do-it-yourself’ tools on the market today, enabling one to realize even greater returns. 

What made me smile most when I read his article was: “Don’t buy into the hype that asset allocation is dead and that now is the time for active investing. Arithmetic works every bit as well in bad financial markets as it does in good markets. If you see ugly returns on the indexes in the next decade, just smile and realize how much better you are actually doing.”  For ones like me that take great comfort in seeing things in black and white, is there any other choice than going with an asset allocation and rebalancing as needed.  The numbers speak for themselves.

In 2008 it turns out that asset allocation decisions have everything to do with a portfolio performance.

On MarketRiders, we use our own ETF portfolio builder to track some “Celebrity Portfolios” including the “Lazy Portfolios” (published by Paul B. Farrell at Marketwatch). These portfolios mimic allocations based upon Yale University’s David Swensen, Dr. William Bernstein, Ted Aronson, and Bill Schulthesis who wrote “The Coffeehouse Investor.” Community members also have posted many interesting portfolios with unique asset allocations that have held up well in the last few months.

These portfolios use ETFs without active management and we track weighted average portfolio fees. The component ETF fees range from .08% to .50% and the weighted average portfolio fees are between .12% and .21%.

Comparing and contrasting portfolios with similar asset allocations, shows a lot about how to build solid “all weather” allocations that have held up even in 2008. While some of the variance is surely explained by the allocation in non-equities (Bonds, Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds and Cash), a lot of it is explained by the level of diversification amongst the other asset classes.

There’s quite a variance between some of the portfolios – even when their equity exposures are similar. Two portfolios each with 60% equity exposure have dramatically different results.

For example, Bill Schulthesis, a ex-Salomon Smith Barney broker who wrote The Coffeehouse Investor, designed a portfolio with 40% in an intermediate bond index (BND) and 10% in each of 6 stock funds (Vanguad REIT ETF (VNQ), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB), Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR), Vanguard Value ETF (VTV), Vanguard FTSE All World ex-US ETF (VEU)). Dr. William Bernstein wrote the “Intelligent Asset Allocator” and “The Four Pillars of Investing” and proposed the same basic allocation. But high exposure to small cap value US stocks and REITs allowed Coffeehouse’s returns to trump Bernstein by over 2 times.

Here are the results as of last night’s close.  These portfolios and the ETFs in them are posted on MarketRiders.

The Best and the Worst Returns

To better understand where the variances lie, we drill down into each asset class to see where returns (or lack thereof) are coming from. Aronson’s portfolio, is the worst so far, down (16.65%) with 80% equity exposure. Unfortunately, Aronson had no REIT exposure and heavy exposure to Emerging Market (VWO) and Foreign Markets (European (VGK) and Pacific (VPL)) which have both been crushed this year. Aronson’s portfolio has performed very well for 5 years on the backs of these asset classes, but 2008 has been his come-uppance.

The MarketRiders “Low Risk” portfolio is doing the best so far this year – down only (1.83%) – but with 25% exposure to equity and Real Estate (RWR). A strong US allocation (iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index  (IJR) and SPY) over Foreign Developed and Emerging Markets (VEU) helped dampen the losses.

It’s Time to Rebalance!

Today, we’re rebalancing a few of these portfolios where actual allocations now vary greater than 20% off our targets. The most out of balance portfolio is the one built by John Spense and Rick Ferri on MarketWatch. Emerging Markets, Foreign Markets, TIPs and Small Cap US stocks are all out of whack so this portfolio and others will be brought back to their targets.

Stay tuned.  At the end of the year, we’ll report back and show you how these portfolios did.