Sadly, it was no surprise to learn the Goldman Sachs threw their clients “under the bus” by deceitfully selling them mortgage securities while at the same time making a killing on shorting the housing market.  Their slogan, “Helping clients build and preserve their financial wealth” needs a minor adjustment. “Helping clients build and preserve OUR financial wealth.” This is a paragon of the Wall Street ethic – make money (hmmm – a lot of money) even if you must trample your client under foot. When you manage your own diversified portfolio of ETFs through a MarketRiders account, you truly get Wall Street out of your pocketbook by removing the intermediaries.

The Wall Street gurus seem to have a closet full of tricks to help investors outperform the market. Unfortunately, most of this advice is unproven and ineffective. In this MoneyWatch article, James Picerno points out one of the ONLY scientifically proven secrets to boost portfolio returns year-upon-year – disciplined rebalancing. Mr. Picerno underscores that rebalancing can deliver a 0.5 to 1.0 percentage point annual bonus compared to what you’d earn on the same portfolio that’s left alone. Our research shows that by using MarketRiders’ advanced rebalancing algorithms rather than a simple calendar based approach, investors add up to 2% additional growth in some portfolios and market conditions. We have more on this topic here: “How Often Do I Need to Rebalance?”.

When it comes to retirement investing, remember that you don’t have as many friends in the financial services industry as you think. By taking the time to learn the virtues of low cost indexing, global diversification and disciplined rebalancing, you will truly build and preserve YOUR wealth.

So when it comes to investing in any type of fund, be it index mutual funds, exchange traded funds (ETFs) or mutual funds, investors need to be their own advocate.  Do your homework to understand your true costs as no two funds are exactly alike.  ’Americans save trillions of dollars for college education and retirement by investing it with funds managed by industry and giants like the Vanguard Group and Fidelity Investments.’

If you are new to the game, beginners should brush up on Investing 101 basics. There are a lot of choices. Make the smartest choice for YOU.  Just remember, time is your friend.  Money spent on fees today, compounded over time, is money that could be sitting in your retirement account. Do your homework, you will thank yourself later!

To paraphrase Warren, most investors should “do as I say, not as I do.”  The world’s greatest investor warns us against trying to imitate his stock picking abilities.  His unwavering advice for years has been to buy index funds because:  a) very few people have it in their DNA to be a great investor, and b) those who charge you for their investment expertise can rarely outperform the market due to their onerous fees.

To bring home his advice we’ve pulled together a rare 8 minute Buffett video, evidence a $1 million bet he made, and a fable that he wrote.

A Fable.  Read excerpts from Berkshire Hathaway’s 2005 and 2006 annual reports where Buffett describes what happens to the imaginary Gotrocks family when they begin taking help from Wall Street.

“…imagine for a moment that all American corporations are, and always will be, owned by a single family. We’ll call them the Gotrocks… In the Gotrocks household everyone grows wealthier at the same pace, and all is harmonious.  But let’s now assume that a few fast-talking Helpers approach the family and persuade each of its members to try to outsmart his relatives by buying certain of their holdings and selling them certain others….  The more that family members trade, the smaller their share of the pie and the larger the slice received by the Helpers. This fact is not lost upon these broker-Helpers: Activity is their friend, and in a wide variety of ways, they urge it on.”

The $1m Wager. Buffett bet Protégé partners, a fund of hedge funds, $1,000,000 that over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.  Buffett’s bet is a bet on high fees.  His view:  regardless of how good the money managers are, the hedge fund fee structure is so high, that it will, over 10 years, wipe away any gains achieved from beating the market.

The Lecture. Warren Buffett spoke to a group of students at the University of Florida and answered questions for ninety minutes about his investment philosophy.   Fast forward to the 1:15 minute mark on this great video where he says:

“If you are not a professional investor, if your goal is not to manage money in such a way that you get a significantly better return than world, then I believe in extreme diversification. I believe that 98 or 99 percent – maybe more than 99 percent – of people who invest should extensively diversify and not trade. That leads them to an index fund with very low costs. All they’re going to do is own a part of America. They’ve made a decision that owning a part of America is worthwhile. I don’t quarrel with that at all – that is the way they should approach it.”

Just because you can pick up a golf club doesn’t mean you should bet all your savings on your getting on the PGA tour.  And just because you (or someone in a suit at an investment management firm) can place a trade at an online broker, doesn’t mean you figure out a better strategy than using index funds in an asset allocation strategy for your retirement investing.

Do as I say, not as I do.  Thank you Warren.

With such a huge gap between those feeling comfortable investing in stocks themselves and those that feel stocks are an important component of their portfolio, comes the opportunity for one to turn to stock index funds and exchange traded funds.  With index funds you are still a player in the stock market, but the risks are less as you own a basket of stocks, not one individual company, and purchasing them through your discount broker is cost effective and quite easy.  Stock picking and market timing, though claimed to be figured out by many on Wall Street, is hardly ever done time and time again with great success.  The fundamentals of investing 101 might help you make a solid educated guess on what companies to invest in but let’s face it, investing in individual stocks, for beginners and experienced investors alike can still be a risky venture.  So, for those currently not comfortable investing in stocks on their own, check out index funds.  While you are at it, check out some of the on-line portfolio management tools out on the market to help you manage your overall portfolio.

As Mamundi states, “While it has been established that most actively managed mutual funds lag behind their indexes over time, [this] study further twists the knife: Active management suffers even more by comparison on a risk-adjusted basis. The study found that in many cases where an actively managed fund beats its index on an absolute basis, the additional risk it took didn’t justify the returns earned. Not only should that be a warning sign for investors — because greater risk means greater volatility — but it also suggests that fund managers aren’t living up to what is expected of them.”

As Mamundi points out, it is typically thought that a riskier fund should reward investors with higher returns, but contrary to this popular thinking, over the past three years higher risk has equaled lower returns. Travis Pascavis, director of equity indexes at Morningstar, further explains that, “The key to thinking of risk in terms of returns versus an index is that, in theory, if investors wanted to take on more risk for greater returns, they could simply buy an index fund and lever up their exposure. That would also increase returns while adding risk — and do so at a cheaper cost than most actively managed funds. It is against this standard that actively managed funds should be judged.”

Although we at MarketRiders do not encourage adding risk to a globally diversified portfolio of ETFs via leverage or any other means, it is interesting to note that highly paid money managers once again seem to be the only ones benefiting from their higher-risk game.

This is not to say that you are not exposing yourself to the inherent risk in investing in stocks.  One needs to evaluate just how much risk one can handle and then develop an asset allocation, indexing not only stocks but also bonds and commodities.  Believe me, I’m not pitching Vanguard, but given the breadth of their assortment, Vanguard index funds are worth checking out.

In 2008 it turns out that asset allocation decisions have everything to do with a portfolio performance.

On MarketRiders, we use our own ETF portfolio builder to track some “Celebrity Portfolios” including the “Lazy Portfolios” (published by Paul B. Farrell at Marketwatch). These portfolios mimic allocations based upon Yale University’s David Swensen, Dr. William Bernstein, Ted Aronson, and Bill Schulthesis who wrote “The Coffeehouse Investor.” Community members also have posted many interesting portfolios with unique asset allocations that have held up well in the last few months.

These portfolios use ETFs without active management and we track weighted average portfolio fees. The component ETF fees range from .08% to .50% and the weighted average portfolio fees are between .12% and .21%.

Comparing and contrasting portfolios with similar asset allocations, shows a lot about how to build solid “all weather” allocations that have held up even in 2008. While some of the variance is surely explained by the allocation in non-equities (Bonds, Treasury Inflation Protected Bonds and Cash), a lot of it is explained by the level of diversification amongst the other asset classes.

There’s quite a variance between some of the portfolios – even when their equity exposures are similar. Two portfolios each with 60% equity exposure have dramatically different results.

For example, Bill Schulthesis, a ex-Salomon Smith Barney broker who wrote The Coffeehouse Investor, designed a portfolio with 40% in an intermediate bond index (BND) and 10% in each of 6 stock funds (Vanguad REIT ETF (VNQ), SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB), Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF (VBR), Vanguard Value ETF (VTV), Vanguard FTSE All World ex-US ETF (VEU)). Dr. William Bernstein wrote the “Intelligent Asset Allocator” and “The Four Pillars of Investing” and proposed the same basic allocation. But high exposure to small cap value US stocks and REITs allowed Coffeehouse’s returns to trump Bernstein by over 2 times.

Here are the results as of last night’s close.  These portfolios and the ETFs in them are posted on MarketRiders.

The Best and the Worst Returns

To better understand where the variances lie, we drill down into each asset class to see where returns (or lack thereof) are coming from. Aronson’s portfolio, is the worst so far, down (16.65%) with 80% equity exposure. Unfortunately, Aronson had no REIT exposure and heavy exposure to Emerging Market (VWO) and Foreign Markets (European (VGK) and Pacific (VPL)) which have both been crushed this year. Aronson’s portfolio has performed very well for 5 years on the backs of these asset classes, but 2008 has been his come-uppance.

The MarketRiders “Low Risk” portfolio is doing the best so far this year – down only (1.83%) – but with 25% exposure to equity and Real Estate (RWR). A strong US allocation (iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index  (IJR) and SPY) over Foreign Developed and Emerging Markets (VEU) helped dampen the losses.

It’s Time to Rebalance!

Today, we’re rebalancing a few of these portfolios where actual allocations now vary greater than 20% off our targets. The most out of balance portfolio is the one built by John Spense and Rick Ferri on MarketWatch. Emerging Markets, Foreign Markets, TIPs and Small Cap US stocks are all out of whack so this portfolio and others will be brought back to their targets.

Stay tuned.  At the end of the year, we’ll report back and show you how these portfolios did.